There is a commonality (more of a mirror image, actually) to the Vanden Bossche covid stuff here: The reliable way to get things wrong is to assume that the universe is static, and doesn’t respond to your actions.
Or, perhaps, that you understand the full scope of the universe’s response to your actions and can predict them accurately.
In the case of atmospheric CO2, the goal is to demonstrate a doomsday scenario, so the response of natural systems to increased CO2 concentrations is ignored.
In the case of covid, the goal is to demonstrate that we have control over the virus, so the response of natural systems to mitigation measures is ignored.
“There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio,
Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.”