RE: History Predicts “Buckle Up”

Some quotes

“The fundamental problems, he says, are a dark triad of social maladies: a bloated elite class, with too few elite jobs to go around [JDM note – this is Eric Weinstein’s ‘Embedded Growth Obligation’]; declining living standards among the general population; and a government that can’t cover its financial positions.”

And

“Elite overproduction creates counter-elites, and counter-elites look for allies among the commoners. If commoners’ living standards slip—not relative to the elites, but relative to what they had before—they accept the overtures of the counter-elites and start oiling the axles of their tumbrels. Commoners’ lives grow worse, and the few who try to pull themselves onto the elite lifeboat are pushed back into the water by those already aboard. The final trigger of impending collapse, Turchin says, tends to be state insolvency. At some point rising in­security becomes expensive. The elites have to pacify unhappy citizens with handouts and freebies—and when these run out, they have to police dissent and oppress people. Eventually the state exhausts all short-term solutions, and what was heretofore a coherent civilization disintegrates.”

Excellent stuff.

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